Of course, we won’t know the true outcome until November 3 — or possibly after that. Four years ago at this time, the polls also augured success for the Democratic ticket, but Donald Trump was able to win in the electoral college.
But even if there is a clear Democratic victory this time, that wouldn’t lead to the end of Trumpism in the Republican Party. Ironically, it could be the opposite — that a big Democratic win could help the pro-Trump factions even as Trump himself loses the White House.
One reason is that when one party wins big in any congressional election, it tends to be the moderates who represent swing districts, particularly in the House, who lose their seats. House Republicans who lost their seats in 2018 or who face tough races this year tend to come from suburban swing districts, not strong Trump districts in rural areas, the South or other conservative strongholds.
Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Kevin McCarthy and most of Trump’s other prominent supporters in the House are in safe seats. Even if the Republicans lose 10 House seats, those defeated likely will not be among those who are most loyal to Trump.